“Well folks, when you are right 52% of the time, you are wrong 48% of the time.”

The title of this post is a quote from Smooth Jimmy Apollo, a fictional sports gambling prognosticator from “Lisa the Greek,” an episode of the Simpsons from season 3. The episode opens with Homer set for a couch-bound day of gluttony and illicit gambling on NFL games. During the pregame show, a television host introduces Jimmy, touting his 52% accuracy calling NFL games.  When pressed by the news host, Jimmy gives Denver the nod over new England, and Homer dutifully calls Moe’s Tavern with a $20 bet to that effect.  New England wins 55-10.  When asked about his bad prediction, Jimmy says, “Well folks, when you are right 52% of the time, you are wrong 48% of the time.” To which Homer responds “Why didn’t you say that before?”